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Weekly Commentary – 30 April 2026

30 April 2026

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Weekly30 April 2026

Foreign Exchange Reserves

The usable foreign exchange reserves decreased by 0.10% to USD 13,226 million (5.60 months of import cover). This remains above the CBK’s statutory requirement to endeavor to maintain at least 4.0 months of import cover and above the EAC region’s convergence criteria of 4.5 months of import cover.

Currency

The Kenya Shilling appreciated against the Dollar, the Sterling Pound and the Euro to exchange at KES 129.19, KES 174.13 and KES 150.99 respectively. The observed appreciation against the Dollar is attributed to a lower demand for the currency.

Currency YTD Change W-o-W Change Dollar 0.11% -0.10% Sterling Pound 0.10% -0.01% Euro -0.49% -0.05%

Liquidity

Liquidity in the money markets increased, with the Kenya Shilling Overnight Interbank Average (KESONIA) marginally decreasing from 8.76% to 8.75%, as government payments more than offset tax remittances. Open market operations remained active Liquidity Week (Previous) Week (Ending) KESONIA 8.76% 8.75% Inter-bank volume (billion) 8.30 9.40 Commercial banks’ excess reserves 71.40 54.60 (billion)

Fixed Income

T-Bills

T-Bills remained under-subscribed during the week, albeit higher, with the overall subscription rate increasing to 76.98%, from 57.41% recorded in the previous week. The 91day T-Bill received the highest subscription rate at 200.62%, while the 182-day T-Bill and 364day T-Bill had subscription rates of 32.58% and 71.92% respectively. The acceptance rate decreased by 0.05% to close the week at 99.95%.

Treasury Bills Yields 11.00% 10.00% 9.00% 8.00% 7.00% Apr-25 Jul-25 Oct-25 Jan-26 Apr-26 Period in months 91 day yields 182 day yields 364 day yields

T-Bonds

In the secondary bond market, there was a lower demand for the week’s bond offers. Bond turnover decreased by 46.78% from KES 61.77 billion in the previous week to KES 32.88 billion.

Total bond deals decreased by 15.47% from 944 in the previous week to 798.

Eurobonds

In the international market, yields on Kenya’s Eurobonds increased by an average of 0.18% and 1.10% week-on-week and year-to-date respectively, but decreased 0.27% month-to-date. The yields on the 10-year Eurobonds for Ivory Coast increased while those for Angola declined.

Bond YTD Change MTD Change W-o-W Change 2018 10-Year Issue 1.49% -0.06% 0.08% 2018 30-Year Issue 0.52% -0.12% 0.08% 2019 12-Year Issue 1.36% -0.18% 0.29% 2021 13-Year Issue 1.06% -0.37% 0.29% 2024 6-Year Issue 1.07% -0.60% -0.14% 8.51% 8.21% 8.04%

Equities

NASI, NSE 20, NSE 25, NSE 10 and the Banking Sector Index settled 0.85%, 1.16%, 1.17%, 1.50% and 1.12% lower, bringing the year-to-date performance to 9.60%, 12.95%, 10.72%, 8.07% and 15.53% respectively. Market capitalization also decreased by 0.84% from the previous week to close at KES 3.41 trillion, recording a year-to-date increase of 15.18%. The performance was driven by losses recorded by large cap stocks such as Co-operative Bank, KCB, EABL and Equity of 2.80%, 2.19%, 2.01% and 2.00% respectively.

The Banking sector had shares worth KES 1.6B transacted which accounted for 70.20% of the week’s traded value. Manufacturing & Allied sector had shares worth KES 139.7M transacted which represented 6.10% and Safaricom, with shares worth KES 282.9 transacted, represented 12.34% of the week’s traded value.

Top Gainers and Losers in the Equities Markets

YTD YTD Top Gainers W-o-W Top Losers W-o-W Change Change Car & General 43.14% 11.45% Kenya Orchards 53.55 -7.28% Total Kenya 17.68% 6.06% Olympia Capital -17.20% -6.23% TP Serena 4.82% 4.49% Nation Media 9.84% -5.74% Uchumi 66.37% 1.62% Sameer 20.00% -5.35% KQ 81.56% 1.25% Flame Tree 34.59% -5.31%

Alternative Investments

Week (Previous) Week (Ending) % change Derivatives Turnover (million) 13.91 0.14 -98.98% Derivatives Volume 4,125 32 99.22% ETF Turnover (million) 10.21 7.60 -25.54% ETF Deals 312 250 -19.87% Global and Continental Markets Global Markets YTD Change W-o-W S&P 500 -5.14% 0.91% Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) -2.26% 0.55% FTSE 100 (FTSE) -3.98% -0.15% STOXX Europe 600 -2.48% 0.10% Shanghai Composite (SSEC) -2.16% 0.79% MSCI Emerging Markets Index -10.74% -0.54% MSCI World Index -4.90% 0.89% Continental Markets YTD Change W-o-W JSE All Share -7.63% -1.46% NSE All Share (NGSE) -54.82% 7.33% Global and Continental Markets The US stock market posted gains amid strong corporate earnings and a gradual decline in oil prices after Iran submitted a new agreement proposal for the US, a step in the eventual resumption of oil exports from the Persian Gulf..

European stock markets recorded a mixed performance following a drop in oil prices, coupled with reduced expectations for Bank of England rate hikes. Asian stocks posted a mixed performance over the week as investors remained focused on geopolitical developments in the Middle East after President Trump reiterated that the US would continue its naval blockade of Iranian ports, while Tehran maintained it would not abandon its nuclear program and signaled ongoing control of the Strait of Hormuz.

On the global commodities markets, Crude Oil WTI and ICE Brent Crude closed the week 7.99% and 9.12% higher at $101.94 and $108.17 respectively. Gold futures prices settled 0.71% lower at $4,661.40.

Week's Highlights

Kenya’s GDP grew by 4.6% in 2025 compared to a 4.7% growth in 2024, supported by positive growth in all sectors of the economy. Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing sector, which accounts for over 20% of the total economy expanded by 3.1%. Construction rebounded from a 0.7% contraction to a 6.8% growth in 2025. Mining and Quarrying sector recovered from a 7.8% contraction in 2024, to a 14.9% growth in 2025 partly driven by increased production of minerals used in cement production. Other sectors that recorded significant growth included Accommodation & Food Service (15.6%), Public Administration (8.3%), Financial & Insurance (6.5%), Information and Communication (4.8%) and Transportation and Storage (3.7%).

The overall inflation increased to 5.6% in April 2026 from 4.4% in March 2026 mainly driven by an increase in food and fuel prices. The Food and Non-Alcoholic Beverages category increased by 8.8%, Transport by 10.0% and Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas and Other Fuels index increased by 2.4% over the period.

The Kenya Mortgage Refinance Company PLC (KMRC) has issued a KES 3.0 billion bond offer, targeting institutional and retail investors through a sustainability-labelled fixed rate note under its KES 10.5 billion Medium-Term Note programme. The sale runs from April 28, 2026 to May 12, with listing on the NSE Fixed Income Securities Market scheduled for May 25, with the minimum investment threshold set at KES 100,000.

The US Manufacturing PMI remained unchanged at 52.7 in April 2026, matching its highest level since August 2022 but falling short of market expectations for a rise to 53.0. New orders grew at a faster pace (54.1 vs. 53.5 in March), and supplier deliveries lengthened further (60.6 vs.

58.9). Production expanded at a slower rate (53.4 vs. 55.1), and employment levels declined at the sharpest pace in four months (46.4 vs. 48.7). Prices surged at the fastest rate since April 2022, driven by rising oil and diesel costs linked to the Middle East conflict. Sentiment remained mixed in the second month of the Iran war.

The S&P Global UK Manufacturing PMI climbed to 53.7 in April 2026 from 51 in March, slightly above the preliminary estimate of 53.6, marking the highest reading since May 2022. Output expanded for the sixth time in seven months, supported by stronger new orders, backlog clearing and a modest build-up in finished goods inventories. New orders grew at one of the fastest rates in four years, driven by both domestic and export demand. However, supply chain strains intensified, largely due to ongoing disruption linked to the prolonged Middle East conflict. As a result, input prices rose at its fastest rate since June 2022, marking one of the steepest increases recorded outside the post-pandemic spike. Finally, business optimism hit a one-year low as manufacturers grew increasingly concerned about the impact of the Middle East conflict on global growth.

The S&P Global Eurozone Manufacturing PMI climbed to 52.2 in April 2026, up from 51.6 in March and matching initial estimates. Factory output rose the most, driven by improving demand, as new orders grew at the fastest pace in four years and export orders increased for the first time in over four years. Front-loaded purchasing, linked to expectations of higher prices amid war-related energy and supply shocks, supported sales. Inventory levels declined but at a slower pace, while employment continued to fall despite rising backlogs, extending nearly three years of job cuts. Cost pressures increased, with input inflation reaching a 46-month high and output prices rising at the fastest rate in 39 months. Meanwhile, business confidence weakened to its lowest since November 2024.

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