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Weekly Commentary – 12 April 2026

12 April 2026

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Weekly12 April 2026

Foreign Exchange Reserves

The usable foreign exchange reserves decreased by 2.49% to USD 13,316 million (5.70 months of import cover). This remains above the CBK’s statutory requirement to endeavor to maintain at least 4.0-months of import cover and above the EAC region’s convergence criteria of 4.5-months of import cover.

Currency

The Kenya Shilling appreciated against the Dollar, but depreciated against the Sterling Pound and the Euro to exchange at KES 129.15, KES 173.30 and KES 150.96 respectively. The observed appreciation against the Dollar is attributed to stable foreign exchange reserves.

Currency YTD Change W-o-W Change Dollar 0.08% -0.65% Sterling Pound -0.38% 0.77% Euro -0.51% 0.68%

Liquidity

Liquidity in the money markets decreased, with the Kenya Shilling Overnight Interbank Average (KESONIA) marginally increasing from 8.74% to 8.75%, as tax remittances more than offset government payments. Open market operations remained active.

Liquidity Week (Previous) Week (Ending) KESONIA 8.74% 8.75% Inter-bank volume (billion) 18.43 14.96 Commercial banks’ excess reserves 6.20 6.90 (billion)

Fixed Income

T-Bills

T-Bills were oversubscribed during the week, with the overall subscription rate increasing to 102.30%, from 70.85% recorded in the previous week. The 91-day T-Bill received the highest subscription rate at 199.44%, while the 182-day T-Bill and 364-day T-Bill had subscription rates of 108.53% and 57.21% respectively. The acceptance rate increased by 0.23% to close the week at 99.91%.

Treasury Bill Yields

11.00% 10.00% 9.00% 8.27% 8.00% 7.83% 7.40% 7.00% Apr-25 Jul-25 Oct-25 Jan-26 Apr-26 91 day yields 182 day yields 364 day yields

T-Bonds

In the secondary bond market, there was a lower demand for the week’s bond offers. Bond turnover decreased by 9.71% from KES 58.92 billion in the previous week to KES 53.20 billion.

Total bond deals decreased by 1.00% from 799 in the previous week to 791. In the primary bond market, CBK released the results for two bonds FXD1/2020/015 and FXD1/2018/025, with coupon rates of 12.76% and 13.40%. The issue received bids worth KES 74.89 billion against a target of KES 40 billion. Of these, KES 50.19 were accepted at weighted average rates of 12.19% and 12.99% respectively. Additionally, CBK also reopened a bond SDB1/2011/030 and issued a new bond FXD1/2026/030 with coupon rates of 12.00% and 12.50%, targeting to raise KES 20 billion. The sale runs from 7th April 2026 to 15th April 2026.

Eurobonds

In the international market, yields on Kenya’s Eurobonds decreased by an average of 0.53%, 0.34% and 1.02% week-on-week, month-to-date and year-to-date respectively. The yields on the 10-year Eurobonds for both Ivory Coast and Angola also increased.

Bond YTD Change MTD Change W-o-W Change 2018 10-Year Issue 1.48% -0.07% -0.29% 2018 30-Year Issue 0.31% -0.33% -0.46% 2019 12-Year Issue 1.13% -0.41% -0.66% 2021 13-Year Issue 0.84% -0.59% -0.73% 2024 6-Year Issue 1.36% -0.31% -0.50%

Equities

NASI, NSE 20, NSE 25, NSE 10 and the Banking Sector Index settled 3.89%, 3.18%, 3.98%,4.76 and 4.49% higher, bringing the year-to-date performance to 10.49%, 14.31%, 12.18%, 9.88% and 16.87% respectively. Market capitalization also gained by 3.89% from the previous week to close at KES 3.43 trillion, recording a year-to-date increase of 16.11%. The performance was driven by gains recorded by large cap stocks such as COOP, Equity, Absa, Safaricom and KCB of 7.67%, 7.22%, 4.39%, 4.39% and 4.03% respectively.

The Banking sector had shares worth KES 1.8B transacted which accounted for 66.29% of the week’s traded value. Manufacturing & Allied sector had shares worth KES 146.2M transacted which represented 5.28% and Safaricom, with shares worth KES 456M transacted, represented 16.47% of the week’s traded value.

Top Gainers and Losers in the Equities Markets

YTD YTD Top Gainers W-o-W Top Losers W-o-W Change Change KQ 92.74% 25.91% EA Portland 3.78% -7.93% TP Serena 6.43% 8.52% Standard Group -8.01% -3.50% Shri Krishana 16.22% 7.99% Kakuzi 2.61% -3.00% Satrix MSCI 0.69% 7.99% WPP Scangroup -8.00% -2.54% Total Kenya 13.72% 7.88% Home Afrika 5.88% -2.04%

Alternative Investments

Week (Previous) Week (Ending) % change Derivatives Turnover (million) 177.30 43.61 152.09% Derivatives Volume 6,682 7,943 18.87% ETF Turnover (million) 5.30 14.33 170.38% ETF Deals 195 122 -37.44% Global and Continental Markets Global Markets YTD Change W-o-W S&P 500 -0.61% 3.56% Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) -0.96% 3.04% FTSE 100 (FTSE) 6.53% 1.57% STOXX Europe 600 3.14% 3.05% Shanghai Composite (SSEC) -0.92% 2.73% MSCI Emerging Markets Index 8.26% 7.39% MSCI World Index 0.48% 3.49% Continental Markets YTD Change W-o-W JSE All Share 2.75% 2.66% NSE All Share (NGSE) 30.21% 1.03% Global and Continental Markets The US stock market posted gains during the week amid easing geopolitical tensions and easing traffic at the Strait of Hormuz which eased the fears of energy-driven inflation. US president was also optimistic of the progress of talks with Iran.

European stock markets edged higher during the week, on the back of easing geopolitical tension that will would see the pressure on key energy commodities dwindle. Ukrainian officials signaled fresh optimism on talks with Russia that could pave the way to the end of the war.

Asian stock markets closed also recorded gains, as investors remained cautiously optimistic ahead of US - Iran ceasefire and potentially pave way for the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.

On the global commodities markets, Crude Oil WTI and ICE Brent Crude closed the week 13.42% and 5.43% lower at $96.57 and $103.11 respectively. Gold futures prices settled 2.30% higher at $4,787.40.

Week's Highlights

The CBK projects the 2025 real GDP at 5.0% compared to 4.7% in 2024, supported by a rebound of the industrial sector, resilience of the services sector and stable agriculture sector growth.

Leading economic indicators point to continued resilient performance in Q1 of 2026. Economic growth is projected at 5.3% in 2026 compared to the previous projection of 5.5%, reflecting the risks of the conflict in the Middle East on the performance of some key sectors of the economy.

The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the retained the Central Bank Rate (CBR) at 8.75% during its meeting held on 8th April, 2026. During its deliberations, the Committee noted that the geopolitical tension in the Middle East disrupted global supply chains leading to higher fuel prices and increased risks to the global economic outlook. Global inflation is also expected to increase in 2026 on account of higher energy prices and fertiliser costs attributed to the supply disruptions from the conflict. The next committee meeting will be held in June.

The Stanbic Bank Kenya PMI weakened for the first time in seven months to 47.7 in March from 50.4 in February, after six months of expansion, as businesses reported a solid decline in both output and new orders. The slowdown was majorly demand-led, with firms pointing out constrained consumer spending and reduced cash circulation. Companies reported elevated cost pressures such as higher taxs, increased fuel and transportation costsand increased shipping expenses. The outlook remains optimistic, as the survey data pointed to a degree of resilience in Kenyan business sentiment.

Zenith Bank, a Nigerian – based bank, completed the acuisition of Paramount Bank Kenya Limited at an undisclosed amount, following the approval from the Competition Authority of Kenya. This is the fourth bank with a presence in Kenya after United Bank of Africa, Guaranty Trust Bank and Access Bank.

Centum Investment Company PLC has closed its share buyback programme after three years of active repurchases across two phases, acquiring a combined 10.84 million ordinary shares, below the 10% target. The shares will be retained as treasury stock, reducing the company's freely tradable float on the NSE to 644.74 million shares.

The yield on the US 10-year Treasury Note edged up to 4.31% on Friday, moving slightly away from the three-week lows reached in the previous session, as investors continued to monitor developments in the Middle East. The impact of the war with Iran is already being reflected in US inflation data. Consumer prices rose 0.9% in March, the largest monthly increase since June 2022, pushing the annual rate to 3.3%, the highest since May 2024. However, core CPI rose more modestly to 2.6% while consumer sentiment plunged to a record low in April.. Inflation expectations for the year ahead also moved sharply higher . Investors currently see little chance of another interest rate cut by the Fed in 2026 while many economists maintain forecasts for one or more reductions later in the year.

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