Market Report – Q1, 2024

MACROECONOMIC REVIEW

GDP

IMF projects continued resilience in the economy in the near term, with growth forecasts of 5.5% in 2023, 5.0% in 2024 and 5.3% in 2025, amid ongoing adjustments in the fiscal policy and external accounts.

Currency

The Shilling reversed its year-long depreciation trend during the quarter, significantly appreciating against the USD, the Sterling Pound and the Euro.

Inflation

The first quarter of 2024 saw a downward trend in inflation, attributed to a decline in fuel and electricity prices. However, food prices remained elevated.

Liquidity

During the quarter, liquidity in the money markets tightened, as evidenced by a surge in the average inter-bank rate from 11.79% in Q4 2023 to 13.59%.

PMI

Kenya’s private sector showed signs of recovery in Q1 2024. The average PMI for the quarter stood at 50.3, indicating an expansion compared to the contractionary reading of 48.1 in Q4 2023.

FIXED INCOME

Treasury Bills

T-bills remained over-subscribed during the quarter, with the overall subscription rate increasing to 138.90%, up from 127.63% recorded in the previous quarter.

Treasury Bonds

In the primary bond market, CBK sought to raise Kshs 190 billion, an increase from Kshs 145 billion in the previous quarter, indicating a rise in the government’s borrowing appetite.

Eurobonds

Eurobond yields decreased by an average of 95 basis points, a stark reversal compared to an increase of 274 basis points in the previous quarter.

EQUITIES

The Kenyan stock market reversed the sharp decline witnessed in 2023, experiencing a significant recovery in Q1 2024, largely driven by appreciation of the Shilling.

For a more detailed report on their performance, download the report here.