Foreign Exchange Reserves
The usable foreign exchange reserves stood at USD 6,376 million (3.56 months of import cover). This falls short of CBK’s statutory requirement to endeavor to maintain at least 4.0-months of import cover as well as EAC region’s convergence criteria of 4.5-months of import cover.
Currency
The Kenyan Shilling depreciated against the Dollar, the Sterling Pound and the Euro to exchange at KES 134.35, KES 168.23 and KES 148.52 respectively. The observed depreciation against the Dollar is attributed to a high demand for the currency, which has caused a market shortage.
| YTD Change | W-o-W Change | |
|---|---|---|
| Dollar | 8.86% | 0.79% |
| Sterling Pound | 13.11% | 1.16% |
| Euro | 12.80% | 1.80% |
Liquidity
Liquidity in the money markets tightened with the average interbank rate increasing from 8.33% to 8.53%, as tax remittances more than offset government payments. Remittance inflows totaled $357 million in March 2023, a 15.46% increase from $309.17 in February 2023 and a 1.82% decline from $363.58 in March 2022. Open market operations remained active.
| Week (previous) | Week (ending) | |
|---|---|---|
| Interbank rate | 8.33% | 8.53% |
| Interbank volume (billion) | 35.56 | 24.63 |
| Commercial banks’ excess reserves (billion) | 9.50 | 10.40 |
Fixed Income
T-Bills
T-Bills were over-subscribed during the week, with the overall subscription rate recorded as 122.59%, down from 134.76% performance recorded in the previous week. The 91-day T-Bill received the highest subscription rate at 621.94% while the 182-day T-Bill and 364-day T-Bill had a subscription rate of 24.72% and 20.73% respectively. The acceptance rate decreased by 6.82% to close the week at 93.02%.
T-Bonds
In the secondary bond market, there was a higher demand for the week’s bond offers. Bond turnover increased by 40.16% from KES 6.03 billion in the previous week to KES 8.46 billion. Total bond deals decreased by 13.67% from 461 in the previous week to 398.
In the primary bond market, CBK reopened the 17-year amortized infrastructure bond; IFB1/2023/017, through a tap sale which sought to raise KES 10 billion. The issue was under-subscribed receiving bids worth KES 5.12 billion, representing a performance of 51.19%. KES 5.12 billion worth of bids were accepted at a weighted average rate of 14.40%.
Eurobonds
In the international market, yields on Kenya’s Eurobonds increased by an average 0.24% compared to the previous week, 0.53% month to date and 1.77% year to date. The yields on the 10-Year Eurobonds for Ghana increased while for Angola declined. Below is a summary analysis of performance for individual bonds.
| Bond | YTD Change | M-o-M Change | W-o-W Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2014 10-Year Issue | 1.76% | 0.94% | 0.46% |
| 2018 10-Year Issue | 2.23% | 0.54% | 0.25% |
| 2018 30-Year Issue | 0.88% | 0.32% | 0.12% |
| 2019 7-Year Issue | 2.71% | 0.46% | 0.31% |
| 2019 12-Year Issue | 1.36% | 0.49% | 0.12% |
| 2021 13-Year Issue | 1.70% | 0.38% | 0.19% |
Equities
NASI, NSE 20 and NSE 25 settled 2.36%, 1.93% and 2.05% lower compared to the previous week bringing the year to date performance to -12.39%, -3.67% and -6.94% respectively. Market capitalization lost 2.37% from the previous week to close at KES 1.74 trillion recording a year to date decline of 12.42%. The performance was driven by losses recorded by large-cap stocks such as KCB, Safaricom and Equity of 5.57%, 4.30%, and 2.20% respectively. These were however mitigated by gains recorded by Stanbic, NCBA and Standard Chartered Bank of 3.50%, 1.23% and 0.59% respectively.
The Banking sector had shares worth KES 702.6M transacted which accounted for 68.22% of the week’s traded value, Manufacturing & Allied sector had shares worth KES 77M transacted which represented 7.52% and Safaricom, with shares worth KES 231.8M transacted represented 22.52% of the week’s traded value.
Top Gainers and Losers in the Equities Markets
| Top Gainers | YTD Change | W-o-W |
|---|---|---|
| Umeme | 101.20% | 20.88% |
| Unga | -34.53% | 13.24% |
| Kapchorua Tea | 10.37% | 11.09% |
| E.A Cables | 5.88% | 9.76% |
| E.A Portland | 1.47% | 9.52% |
| Losers | YTD Change | W-o-W |
|---|---|---|
| Liberty | -26.39% | -16.44% |
| Standard Group | -21.91% | -12.26% |
| FAHARI I-REIT | -11.21% | -11.99% |
| Flame Tree | 5.45% | -10.08% |
| Sameer | -2.36% | -10.00% |
Alternative Investments
| Week (previous) | Week (ending) | % Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Derivatives Turnover (million) | 0.00 | 0.51 | - |
| Derivatives Contracts | 0.00 | 7 | - |
| I-REIT Turnover (million) | 1.66 | 0.26 | -84.15% |
| I-REIT deals | 89 | 41 | -53.93% |
Global and Regional Markets
| Global Markets | YTD Change | W-o-W |
|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | 8.20% | 0.79% |
| Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) | 2.27% | 1.20% |
| FTSE 100 (FTSE) | 4.21% | 1.68% |
| STOXX Europe 600 | 7.54% | 1.74% |
| Shanghai Composite (SSEC) | 7.11% | 0.32% |
| MSCI Emerging Markets Index | 3.94% | 1.36% |
| MSCI World Index | 8.64% | 1.27% |
| Continental Markets | YTD Change | W-o-W |
|---|---|---|
| FTSE ASEA Pan African Index | -0.49% | 0.35% |
| JSE All Share | 6.98% | 2.46% |
| NSE All Share (NGSE) | 0.60% | -2.06% |
| DSEI (Tanzania) | -0.87% | -1.02% |
| ALSIUG (Uganda) | -7.10% | -0.86% |
US indices edged higher, led by gains in banking stocks such as JP Morgan Chase, Wells Fargo and Citigroup Inc, which managed to beat analysts’ expectations as net interest margins were boosted by higher interest rates. Materials and industrial stocks also rallied, while technology stocks lagged mainly due to NVIDIA’s decline.
European indices ended the week on a positive note, with the banking sector outperforming the broader market. Additionally, the expected halt of the US Federal Reserve’s aggressive interest rate-hike policy following the unexpected fall in US producer prices in March contributed to the recorded gains.
Asia Pacific indices recorded a marginal weekly increase, supported by an unexpected rebound in exports which could herald economic recovery. However, staggered economic growth remains a concern for investors.
On the global commodities markets, Crude Oil WTI and ICE Brent Crude closed the week 2.45% and 1.77% higher at $82.68 and $86.63 respectively. Gold futures prices settled 0.29% higher at $2017.70.
Week’s Highlights
- The Energy and Petroleum Regulatory Authority (EPRA) released the retail prices of petroleum products which will be in force from 15th April 2023 to 14th May 2023. The maximum allowed petroleum pump price of Super Petrol, Diesel and Kerosene remain unchanged. The price of diesel has been cross subsidized with that of Super Petrol while a subsidy of KES 17.12/litre has been maintained for Kerosene to cushion consumers from the high prices.
- The National Treasury gazetted the actual revenues and expenditure for the 9 months of the financial year 2022/23 ending 31st March 2023. Total revenue collected during the month amounted KES 1.44 trillion, accounting for 67.29% of the original KES 2.14 trillion estimates for the FY2022/23. The figure lies below the KES 1.60 trillion prorated amount expected for the first nine months of the year. Total expenditure amounted KES 2.09 trillion, translating to 59.04% of the original estimates. The deficit was plugged by a total KES 647.33 billion in financing.
- The Central Bank of Kenya in collaboration with the financial industry has upgraded the Kenya Payment and Settlement System (KEPSS) to the ISO 20022 standards as part of the National Payment Strategy 2022-2025. KEPSS is a Real Time Gross Settlement System (RTGS) which ensures that transactions are cleared and settled continuously. The adoption of ISO 20022 embeds a richer data on financial messages, enhancing the accuracy of trading parties and providing insights for customer preferences.
- The World Bank Group Board of Directors approved $390 million in financing for the first phase of a program aimed at increasing access to high-speed internet, improving the quality and delivery of education and selected government services, and developing skills for the region’s digital economy. It will employ a Multi-phase Programmatic Approach (MPA) in two phases, the first from 2023 to 2028 and the second from 2026 to 2030.
- The IMF’s World Economic Outlook (WEO) for April 2023, projects the global output growth to slow down from an estimated 3.4% in 2022 to 2.8% in 2023, before rising modestly to 3.0% in 2024. Risks to the global outlook are heavily skewed to the downside, with rising financial sector risks as the banking sector vulnerabilities come into focus. The side effects of the recent rise of policy rates in advanced economies is also becoming evident even as inflation has remained high.
- The FAO Food Price Index (FFPI) averaged 126.9 points in March 2023, down 2.1% from February, marking the twelfth consecutive monthly decline since reaching its peak one year ago. During the past twelve months since March 2022, the index has fallen 20.5%. The decline in the index in March was led by drops in the cereal, vegetable oil and dairy price indices, while those of sugar and meat increased.
- US annual inflation rate slowed for a ninth consecutive period to 5% in March 2023 from 6% in February 2023. The largest contributor to the monthly gain was the shelter costs, which more than offset sharp declines across energy categories, which decreased 3.5% over the month. Consequently, the Consumer Price Index(CPI) edged 0.1% higher, slowing from a 0.4% increase in February and below the expected rate of 0.2%. The food index remained unchanged in March.
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